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Here are some "current" estimates and projections for the Internet.
Present: roughly 151 million people online worldwide
Projected: 230 million by 2001
Present: total revenue generated by online retail estimated at
$2.35 billion worldwide in 1998
Projected: $7 billion by 1999
Present: Online banking services used by 8 million households
in the U.S.
Projected: 22 million by 2001
These numbers reveal spectacular growth but don't give us the big picture. We
need to anticipate how these changes will impact society and commerce. Just like with the
tabloid psychics, there are advantages to making lots of predictions. A few of them are
bound to come true. Here are six:
Prediction #1 -- Intranet/Extranet
Explosion. Intranets use web technology, but instead of being "world wide," they
are company wide systems. There will be an estimated 133 million users by 2001. Extranets
are web based systems like Intranets but can link up multiple businesses and customers in
private, usually secure areas. Within some industries, intranets and extranets are already
the model for efficiency, allowing routine commercial and administrative exchanges in
powerful and expedient ways. Expect a proliferation of these systems that extend
efficiency and convenience into your work and home environment.
Prediction #2 -- Cool Gadgets
Place the Web Everywhere. The web will become ubiquitous. "How can this happen?"
you might ask. After all, only 40 percent of the U.S. now has access to a personal
computer, and the numbers aren't expected to exceed 50 percent for a long time. So how can
the other 60 percent get easy access? Ubiquity will be reached through new, cheaper
Internet gadgets. Web TV and similar devices will help fill the gaps.
But here's the exciting part, expect to find Internet ready VCRs and TVs. Soon,
the market will have telephones with built-in e-mail and web capabilities. In fact,
InteliData is already selling a $99 e-mail phone. Internet cell phones, palm tops and
things we haven't even dreamed of yet can be expected to spring up in just a few years.
Prediction #3 -- Internet Fatigue.
First, people will become sick and tired of web guys using the word,
"ubiquitous." Seriously, a small consumer side backlash will occur considering
the ongoing bandwidth problems. Sheer boredom may cool off Internet growth. After all, a
walk in the park can still be more fun than the world's coolest web site.
Prediction #4 -- Online Shopping
Displaces Large Discount Stores. The latest research suggests the public is increasingly
likely to make purchases from the web without fear. Seventy percent of Internet users now
shop or intend to shop online. This news and dramatic price drops in producing web stores,
means we can expect to see a radical transformation in the retail scene. How will the huge
warehouse style stores compete with an online store that has no warehousing expenses, no
real estate, no maintenance or heating costs? Online stores can function with practically
no employees and with direct distribution, and are very scalable. Some can handle 1,000
customers and then expand to 3,000 instantly with hardly any change in efficiency. Where
will this leave us in 10 years? Warehouse style retail will lack few distinct advantages
over online stores. On the bright side, we can expect a glut of conveniently located large
buildings to use for flea markets and community recreation centers.
Prediction #5 -- The Year 2000
Armageddon. The bell strikes midnight. Your home's heating system shuts down. Your VCR
freezes and your digital watch explodes. Well, probably not. Actually, the big news is the
web will quite likely be hindered only slightly. The code and the hardware are mostly new.
Don't expect Gabriel to sound his virtual trumpet, but do expect online traffic jams in
the short run.
We can expect 15 million nerds to log on simultaneously just to see what's
busted, thereby driving the world wide wait to temporarily become the world wide waxworks.
But the processes that are most worrisome are big old systems running behind the scenes.
In other words, if a savings and loan has not solved its mainframe's year 2000 problems,
its customers might find their new online banking system no better than vaporware.
Prediction #6 -- High Speed
Access. Homes and small businesses will have dedicated, high speed access to the Internet.
Cable modems, digital satellite and new products like ADSL will bring compressed video,
games and more sophisticated multimedia options to growing numbers of homes and
businesses.
As the numbers grow, we will soon have a two tiered web. One tier, mid to slow
(with 56K modems or less), will begin to feel left out and find more and more sites that
do not perform well. The other tier, high speed, will expect and receive more bells and
whistles. High speed Internet is the future. It will be a boon to commerce, and will
attract more exciting development and services.
Keep in mind that much of what drives the process of change is human behavior.
At best, human behavior is a tricky thing to get a firm hold on, so any predictions about
the Internet are suspect. Things are changing faster than you can say
"ubiquitous." So hold on to your cyber hats, button your extranet and hang on
for dear life.
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